Risk Analysis

Schneier on Security has a great article up about risk analysis and worst case scenarios.

The new undercurrent in this is that our society no longer has the ability to calculate probabilities. Risk assessment is devalued. Probabilistic thinking is repudiated in favor of "possibilistic thinking": Since we can't know what's likely to go wrong, let's speculate about what can possibly go wrong.

Here's where our education system fails. Critical Thinking is not a course at any level of education outside of college.

Strange object in the sky over Cincinnati

I'll leave it to the reader to determine if local news media should be focusing on more pressing matters, but in this case I'll hand it to WLWT. They had a UFO story and who did they contact? Dean Regas from the Cincinnati Observatory. Good choice.

I have to say that it does look odd coming from the ground. I'm guessing that it isn't a satellite as it appears to be moving much too fast and it appears way too bright in relation to the other objects. It looks to be the speed of a meteor, but like Dean says, it is coming from a very strange angle. I would say that a bottle rocket would surprise me as it is moving very straight and it seems quite high up. My thought is that it is something much close to the foreground than the video makes it out to be.